While most hardware companies dream of achieving modest valuations that justify their manufacturing costs and R&D investments, Ledger—the French crypto wallet manufacturer that has somehow convinced 8 million customers to pay between €79 and €399 for what fundamentally amounts to a glorified USB drive with military-grade paranoia—has set its sights on a rather more ambitious target: a $100 billion valuation through a U.S. IPO within three years.
Ledger transforms paranoid USB drives into billion-dollar dreams, targeting a $100 billion valuation that defies hardware company logic.
The company’s unwavering commitment to American exchanges represents a fascinating case of geographic inflexibility in capital markets. While other firms might hedge their bets across multiple jurisdictions, Ledger’s CEO has explicitly rejected alternative listing venues, banking entirely on U.S. regulatory conditions aligning with their timeline. This all-or-nothing approach carries considerable risk, particularly given the notoriously fickle nature of crypto regulation.
What makes Ledger’s IPO aspirations particularly intriguing is their revenue model‘s sophistication beyond simple hardware sales. Approximately half their income derives from software services facilitating crypto transactions—a recurring revenue stream that transforms them from a mere device manufacturer into something resembling a financial services platform. This diversification has enabled profitability since 2014, even through crypto’s notorious boom-bust cycles.
The timing appears strategically calculated. Industry observers expect 2025 to herald a crypto IPO renaissance, with Circle and eToro among the firms preparing public debuts. Political winds have shifted favorably, with pro-crypto administrative stances potentially easing regulatory headwinds that previously stymied such offerings. Ledger’s management clearly hopes to ride this wave while market sentiment remains bullish.
Their market position provides substantial leverage for public market ambitions. Protecting over 20% of global crypto assets represents remarkable penetration for a hardware-focused company, suggesting genuine utility beyond speculative fervor. The shift from crypto security provider to broader cybersecurity company—their stated long-term vision—offers additional growth narratives that public investors typically reward. As Ledger expands its ecosystem, understanding the tokenomics of the various cryptocurrencies their devices support becomes increasingly crucial for maintaining investor confidence. The company has bolstered its product development capabilities by recruiting Tony Fadell, the former Apple executive known for his design expertise. Backed by heavyweight investors including Samsung and Digital Currency Group, Ledger has demonstrated its ability to attract institutional capital across multiple funding rounds.
However, the $100 billion valuation target seems divorced from conventional hardware company metrics. Even with software services bolstering margins, achieving such astronomical valuations requires either transformative technological breakthroughs or sustained crypto market euphoria—neither guaranteed.
Ledger’s high-stakes gamble on American markets reflects confidence bordering on hubris, though their track record suggests such boldness might be justified.
